Agriculture under Climate Change in China: Mitigate the Risks by Grasping the Emerging Opportunities

ABSTRACT

There have been increasing concerns on risks and uncertainty posed by climate change to China's future crop production. The existing assessments using popular process-based and site-specific crop growing models highlight the significant extent of climate-induced yield reduction, and thus suggest a scary downward risk for China's future food production. Surprisingly, much less attention has been paid to exploring the potential gains that may also be brought by climate change. To address this imbalance, we develop an integrated agro-climatic and ecological assessment tool that is capable of detecting the shifts of multicropping opportunities under different climate change scenarios. The application of this tool to the context of China reveals significant extension of multicropping opportunities brought in by climate change. We argue for an active adaptation to such emerging opportunities through both market and policy incentives, because the aggregate gain of such adaptation is sufficient to outweigh the loss as revealed by the existing assessments.     

Nitrogen yield advantage from grass–legume mixtures is robust over a wide range of legume proportions and environmental conditions

Current challenges to global food security require sustainable intensification of agriculture through initiatives that include more efficient use of nitrogen (N), increased protein self‐sufficiency through homegrown crops, and reduced N losses to the environment. Such challenges were addressed in a continental‐scale field experiment conducted over 3 years, in which the amount of total nitrogen yield (N_tot) and the gain of N yield in mixtures as compared to grass monocultures (N_gainmix) was quantified from four‐species grass–legume stands with greatly varying legume proportions. Stands consisted of monocultures and mixtures of two N₂‐fixing legumes and two nonfixing grasses. The amount of N_tot of mixtures was significantly greater (P ≤ 0.05) than that of grass monocultures at the majority of evaluated sites in all 3 years. N_tot and thus N_gainmix increased with increasing legume proportion up to one‐third of legumes. With higher legume percentages, N_tot and N_gainmix did not continue to increase. Thus, across sites and years, mixtures with one‐third proportion of legumes attained ~95% of the maximum N_tot acquired by any stand and had 57% higher N_tot than grass monocultures. Realized legume proportion in stands and the relative N gain in mixture (N_gainmix/N_tot in mixture) were most severely impaired by minimum site temperature (R = 0.70, P = 0.003 for legume proportion; R = 0.64, P = 0.010 for N_gainmix/N_tot in mixture). Nevertheless, the relative N gain in mixture was not correlated to site productivity (P = 0.500), suggesting that, within climatic restrictions, balanced grass–legume mixtures can benefit from comparable relative gains in N yield across largely differing productivity levels. We conclude that the use of grass–legume mixtures can substantially contribute to resource‐efficient agricultural grassland systems over a wide range of productivity levels, implying important savings in N fertilizers and thus greenhouse gas emissions and a considerable potential for climate change mitigation.     

北京市生态用地规划与管理对策

不合理土地开发加速了对自然生态系统的干扰和侵占,导致生态系统服务功能下降,危机区域生态安全,开展生态用地规划是构建区域生态安全格局的基础。合理规划和管理不同土地利用类型的数量和空间分布对区域可持续发展具有重要意义。目前我国广泛应用的土地利用分类体系主要以土地的社会经济属性为基础,忽视其生态属性,导致以提供生态系统服务为主、保障生态安全的土地缺乏保护机制,具有重要生态功能的土地得不到有效保护。以北京市为例,建立了北京市生态用地分类与规划的思路与程序,在明确北京市生态安全与生态系统服务功能的关系基础上分析了北京市生态系统服务功能重要性及其空间格局,并进行了北京市生态用地规划。研究规划了保障北京市生态安全的7类生态用地:地表水涵养与保护用地、地下水保护用地、生物多样性保护用地、水土保持用地、河流防护用地、公路防护用地和城市绿地,总面积5137.37km2,占北京市域面积的31.31%。最后从生态用地识别和划分、将生态用地融入土地利用分类体系、生态用地管理措施和对策3个方面探讨了生态用地规划和管理的方法与措施。研究结果为北京市土地利用规划和有效管理提供依据,也为其它地区的生态用地规划提供参考。     

滨海快速城市化地区土地生态安全评价与预警——以曹妃甸新区为例

对滨海快速城市化地区进行土地生态安全评价和预警是保障土地可持续利用和有效维护土地生态安全的重要内容.基于“压力-状态-响应”(P-S-R)模型,构建了滨海快速城市化地区土地生态安全评价指标体系.借助遥感数据和GIS方法,以1 km×1 km网格为评价单元并通过空间插值,获取了基于像元大小30 m×30 m的曹妃甸新区2005和2013年土地生态安全评价结果.并采用分类树方法对未来曹妃甸新区土地生态安全(LES)进行预警,共分为4种预警类型：安全但有退化趋势预警、亚安全且缓慢退化预警、亚安全且快速退化预警、不安全预警.结果表明：曹妃甸新区2005年土地生态安全平均值为0.55,处于中等安全水平,而2013年为0.52,处于中下安全水平,区域土地生态安全呈下降趋势.曹妃甸新区不安全预警及亚安全且快速退化预警区域主要分布在城市建设用地快速扩展区域,说明城市建设用地的快速扩张是导致区域土地生态安全恶化的最主要因素.工业区、十里海和南堡盐场3个乡镇处于高度危险预警状态,其不安全预警、亚安全且快速退化预警及亚安全且缓慢退化预警3者之和分别占其总面积的58.3%、98.9%和81.2%,未来应加强这些区域的土地生态管理调控.研究结果可为曹妃甸新区土地规划和生态保护提供一定参考.     

基于变权模型的舟山群岛生态安全预警

生态安全预警是生态安全研究的重要内容,对维护区域生态安全具有重要的指示意义.本文以浙江省舟山群岛为例,基于驱动力、压力、状态、影响、响应(DPSIR)框架模型构建了生态安全预警指标体系,使用变权模型对2000-2012年舟山市生态安全的预警等级进行测度,并使用马尔科夫预测方法对2013-2018年生态安全警情进行了预测.结果表明:变权模型能够有效地满足舟山群岛生态安全动态预警研究需要;2000-2012年,舟山群岛生态安全预警指数由0.286波动上升至0.484,警度等级从“重警”演变为“中警”,指示灯由“橙灯”演化为“黄灯”;2013-2018年,舟山群岛生态安全预警等级预测结果为“中警”,指示灯为“黄灯”.研究结果可为维护舟山群岛生态安全提供参考.     

一株拮抗赤霉病的小麦内生细菌的筛选和抑菌活性

对安徽省淮北市小麦植株根、茎、叶中内生细菌的数量进行了调查和筛选,并测定了其抑菌活性.小麦根、茎和叶中的内生细菌的数量分别为7.01×105、4.26×105和0.94×105CFU·g-1鲜重.从健康小麦植株体内分离到131株内生细菌,通过对峙实验,筛选到6株对禾谷镰刀菌有拮抗作用的菌株,占所分离内生细菌总数的4.58%.来自根系组织中的菌株HB022的抑菌效果最佳,抑菌半径为17.0mm.根据形态特征、生理生化特性和16SrDNA序列分析,将菌株HB022初步鉴定为多粘类芽孢杆菌(Paenibacillus polymyxa).抑菌试验结果表明,100倍稀释的菌株HB022无菌发酵滤液对禾谷镰刀菌菌丝生长具有明显抑制作用,5倍稀释的无菌发酵滤液可完全抑制禾谷镰刀菌分生孢子萌发.可见,内生细菌HB022具有潜在生防应用前景.     

Is soil carbon disappearing? The dynamics of soil organic carbon in Java

Research in the soil of the tropics mostly has demonstrated the decline of soil organic carbon (SOC) after conversion of primary forest to plantation and cultivated lands. This paper illustrates the dynamics of SOC on the island of Java, Indonesia, from 1930 to 2010. We used 2002 soil profile observations containing organic carbon (C) analysis in the topsoil, which were collected by the Indonesian Center for Agricultural Land Resources Research & Development from 1923 to 2007. Results show the obvious decline of SOC values from around 2% in 1930–1940 to 0.8% in 1960–1970. However, there has been an increase of SOC content since 1970, with a median level of 1.1% in the year 2000. Our analysis suggests that the human influence and agricultural practices on SOC in Java have been a stronger influence than the environmental factors. SOC for the top 10 cm has shown a net accumulation rate of 0.2–0.3 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1 during the period 1990–2000. These findings give rise to optimism for increased soil C sequestration in the tropics.     

Afforestation for climate change mitigation: Potentials,risks and trade‐offs

Afforestation is considered a cost‐effective and readily available climate change mitigation option. In recent studies afforestation is presented as a major solution to limit climate change. However, estimates of afforestation potential vary widely. Moreover, the risks in global mitigation policy and the negative trade‐offs with food security are often not considered. Here we present a new approach to assess the economic potential of afforestation with the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model framework. In addition, we discuss the role of afforestation in mitigation pathways and the effects of afforestation on the food system under increasingly ambitious climate targets. We show that afforestation has a mitigation potential of 4.9 GtCO₂/year at 200 US$/tCO₂ in 2050 leading to large‐scale application in an SSP2 scenario aiming for 2°C (410 GtCO₂ cumulative up to 2100). Afforestation reduces the overall costs of mitigation policy. However, it may lead to lower mitigation ambition and lock‐in situations in other sectors. Moreover, it bears risks to implementation and permanence as the negative emissions are increasingly located in regions with high investment risks and weak governance, for example in Sub‐Saharan Africa. Afforestation also requires large amounts of land (up to 1,100 Mha) leading to large reductions in agricultural land. The increased competition for land could lead to higher food prices and an increased population at risk of hunger. Our results confirm that afforestation has substantial potential for mitigation. At the same time, we highlight that major risks and trade‐offs are involved. Pathways aiming to limit climate change to 2°C or even 1.5°C need to minimize these risks and trade‐offs in order to achieve mitigation sustainably.     

The impact of interventions in the global land and agri‐food sectors on Nature’s Contributions to People and the UN Sustainable Development Goals

Interlocked challenges of climate change, biodiversity loss, and land degradation require transformative interventions in the land management and food production sectors to reduce carbon emissions, strengthen adaptive capacity, and increase food security. However, deciding which interventions to pursue and understanding their relative co‐benefits with and trade‐offs against different social and environmental goals have been difficult without comparisons across a range of possible actions. This study examined 40 different options, implemented through land management, value chains, or risk management, for their relative impacts across 18 Nature's Contributions to People (NCPs) and the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We find that a relatively small number of interventions show positive synergies with both SDGs and NCPs with no significant adverse trade‐offs; these include improved cropland management, improved grazing land management, improved livestock management, agroforestry, integrated water management, increased soil organic carbon content, reduced soil erosion, salinization, and compaction, fire management, reduced landslides and hazards, reduced pollution, reduced post‐harvest losses, improved energy use in food systems, and disaster risk management. Several interventions show potentially significant negative impacts on both SDGs and NCPs; these include bioenergy and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, afforestation, and some risk sharing measures, like commercial crop insurance. Our results demonstrate that a better understanding of co‐benefits and trade‐offs of different policy approaches can help decision‐makers choose the more effective, or at the very minimum, more benign interventions for implementation.     

生物安全时代:新生物科技变革与国家安全治理*

科技进步改进了人类对天然生物危害因子的操控能力,在诱发新的生物安全危害形态的同时,也赋予了生物安全客体的源头难以追溯性、生物安全主体的多元性、生物安全危害演变机理的复杂性等特点。生物安全在很大程度上体现了非传统安全的非传统特点。随着生物科技与生物安全在推动人类社会发展进程的作用日益显著,21世纪或将成为生物安全的时代。新一轮生物科技变革及其与人类社会互动衍生的生物安全问题,已经逐渐触及人类安全观念和现代文明的内源性危机或挑战。全面提升国家生物安全能力、优化国家生物安全治理,不仅是世界各国的战略选择,也是对人类科技文明与政治文明的新探索。